Mobile Web: Hope or Hype
By Mike Phillips, Senior Editor
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When was the last time you turned off your mobile phone? Do you feel vulnerable when you leave the house without it? Have you ever used your mobile screen as a flashlight to find something in a dark room? If I were to ask, who is the largest manufacturer of digital cameras, would you say Canon? How about the largest manufacturer of music devices? Apple? The answer to both questions is Nokia. The point is the mobile phone has become as essential to our daily lives as getting dressed in the morning. Our mobile devices are with us at all times and rarely out of reach. For many, the thought of losing a mobile device instills a level of panic greater than losing a credit card or an entire wallet or purse. |
A February article by Joel Garreau in The Washington Post cites this
statistic: “From essentially zero, we’ve passed a watershed of more than
3.3 billion active cell phones on a planet of some 6.6 billion humans in
about 26 years. This is the fastest global diffusion of any technology
in human history — faster even than the polio vaccine.”
Mobile Web Usage
The single most popular application to date for mobile devices is SMS text
messaging — over six billion were sent in the U.K. alone in December of 2007,
according to the Mobile Data Association. That’s more than 193 million per day.
In February, research firm Research And Markets predicted over two trillion will
be sent worldwide in 2008.
But there are plenty of other, more advanced applications for the mobile Web,
ranging from the quirky to the practical. Vodafone’s Otello is a search engine
that works by sending a photo taken with your mobile device, then receiving
relevant information regarding the image that was sent. GeoPedia uses an
iPhone’s positional data to find your approximate location and then sends Wikipedia articles about points of interest around you
at that moment. GyPSii uses GPS, user-generated content, social networking
capabilities, photo and video sharing and geo-tagging to instantly connect and
track people all over the world. Twitter has already seen wild success in the
mobile space by answering the question “What are you doing?” It’s essentially a
way for people to follow each other’s daily or even hourly activities through a
network of friends. Some swear it’s a great networking and marketing tool, while
others see it as an enormous waste of time.
Clearly the mobile Web is growing into an everyday utility. But is it a viable
business opportunity?
Google seems to think so. They have set aside $10 million for a contest for
outside developers to create mobile applications. And Google is hardly alone. In
February, AOL announced plans for a mobile development platform using an SML-based
markup language with the intent to run on any mobile device. Even traditional
media are getting in the game. Hearst Publishing (Cosmopolitan, Esquire, O., et
al.) joined Nokia’s ad network, essentially giving advertisers access to more
than 100 million subscribers. Research firm Gartner predicts that worldwide mobile advertising revenue will balloon from $1 billion in 2007
to $11 billion in 2011.
But there are some serious questions surrounding the viability of the mobile
Web. And the biggest of all is, when? It seems that every year is proclaimed as
the year of the mobile Web. But it has yet to happen. Slow (if any) connections,
lagging load times, tiny screens, unrealistic business models and most of all,
lack of user interest
have plagued the industry from day one.
Mobile Expectations
What are Web professionals to do? That depends on what users prepared to do. Is
it realistic to expect consumers to make purchases or transfer money through a
mobile device? Security remains a top concern among mobile users. Something
about sending important, personal data over a wireless connection through
something as easily misplaced as a telephone doesn’t sit right with many
consumers.
Also not to be overlooked is the personal connection between users and their
mobile phones. People have come to embrace the mobile device as an extension to
their everyday lives. It’s no surprise that surveys consistently show users
don’t take kindly to advertisements invading their mobile space. This has made
many advertisers wary of entering this uncharted territory.
For Web professionals, the mobile Web presents some challenges, along with
serious potential. It has become more critical than ever to have your company
and website listed prominently in local directories – where one of the top
utilities for mobile Web surfers is searching for local businesses, directions,
hours of operation and telephone numbers. Included in many of these searches is
critical information about your business. With Google Local, for example, users
can read reviews and leave comments, in addition to getting directions and
telephone numbers, all from Google Maps. In the same way, it’s important for
your website to rank highly in search engines — perhaps even using paid mobile
advertising to draw traffic. The reason is that the third screen is still small for most mobile users,
meaning a limited number of results will show on the first page. And mobile
users rarely go beyond the first page of results.
Emerging technologies present some other interesting opportunities. 2D bar codes
allow a company to print a UPC-like image on virtually any surface — a poster or
magazine page, for example. In response to some enticement, users snap a photo
of the bar code with their mobile device, send the photo to your website where
it is decoded and the appropriate information is sent back to the user. The idea
is to engage users into a “pull” initiative, where people are drawn to request
more information, rather than having it forced upon them — a very useful tactic
for a personal device.
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2d barcode image A 2D barcode used by mobile Web surfers to retrieve information on a given product or promotion.
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So is the mobile Web finally upon us? And will it become the next great business
avenue? There are plenty of arguments for and against it. Read on to explore a
few of them.
Evolving Devices and 3G
These days, just about every mobile device can connect to the Web, but speed
and overall usability vary widely. Third generation (3G) technology aims to up
the usability factor for all mobile devices — promising faster connections and
the ability to transfer large amounts of data in order to bring the mobile
experience closer to browsing by PC. According to a January report from
Forrester Research, three in five mobile users will have signed up to 3G by the
end of 2010. The same report found that the UK and Italy will lead the way with
3G penetration rates of 68 percent and 72 percent, respectively.
Along with 3G technology we’re seeing major advancements in mobile devices and
therefore, usage of the mobile Web. Of course, no discussion about mobile
devices and the Web is complete without mention of the iPhone. Love it or hate
it, the iPhone has changed the game — both in mobile Web usage and the standard
by which all future mobile devices will be measured. In March 2008, M:Metrics, a
leader in mobile media measurement released the findings of a survey showing a
staggering 85 percent of iPhone users regularly access content on the Web,
compared to 58 percent of smartphone users and just 13 percent of overall mobile
phone users. The same study found 59 percent of iPhone users visited a search
engine, compared with 37 percent of smartphone users and a miniscule 6 percent
of overall mobile phone users. This corroborates information Google released in
February that saw on average 50 times more search requests coming from Apple
iPhones than any other mobile handset.
These numbers and the fact that the iPhone has quickly become one of the
top-selling mobile devices in under a year of circulation suggest that consumers
are ready to start connecting to the mobile Web. All they need are a proper
connection and the right equipment. Manufacturers are now scrambling to release
iPhone competitors, and some are already finding success. A joint effort by
Sprint and Samsung has resulted in Instinct, a new device that recently won Best
in Show in the Emerging Technology Award competition at CTIA Wireless 2008 in Las Vegas. Instinct has many of the same features as the iPhone and even a 2.0
megapixel camera. In the meantime, Apple is set to release the second generation
of the iPhone this summer, which promises greater capability, memory and a high
price tag — inevitably one of the factors keeping new devices from expanding
usage of the mobile Web even farther.
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Mobile Tip: Design Graphics and advertisements slow down load time and force users to navigate a page before seeing useful content. Mimic the colors and select key elements of your normal website, but strip graphics and complex navigation. More clicks may mean more ad impressions, but at the cost of the user experience. Remember, you're dealing with an audience that has limited time, patience and bandwidth.
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Limited Devices and Slow Development
Third generation, fourth generation, fifth generation — technology is never
going to stop evolving, so it might end up that the devices that we carry
everywhere with us will end in their current manifestation as we know and
understand them – mostly used for simple communication and the occasional
weather forecast. What users do with their mobile devices should not surprise
anyone, and it hasn’t changed much in the past several years. A 2007 M:Metrics
study of overall mobile phone users found that while 73 percent sent text
messages, only 7 percent had browsed news and information on the Web.
The strongest argument for the mobile Web has not changed: when the owners of
the world’s mobile phones get online their numbers will vastly outweigh the
number of mobile PCs accessing the Internet; therefore, the market will tilt in
the direction of mobile. The problem is that these users have not yet connected
to the Internet in big numbers and, for those who do it's only on occasion and
for very specific reasons and very limited amounts of time. For example, in the
past week, how many times have you searched Yahoo on your mobile? Compare that
with how many times in the past week you searched Yahoo from your PC. Take into
account proxy data charges and slow speeds today and you start to see the clear
picture of why genuine adoption has been so slow. Users have not yet become
accustomed to using their devices to their current but limited potential. Even
when they do, the overall experience leaves much to be desired – both from the
connections and the limited capabilities of the overwhelming majority of devices
in circulation.
Smartphones are a reality and the advent of the iPhone did open up new
possibilities and show consumers the potential of the mobile Web. But technology
keeps us continually moving forward and you can bet that there will be
casualties. The openness of Android will take years to be realized and the same
goes for the iPhone Software Development Kit (SDK). Developers are only starting
to build applications that will bring the mobile Web to fruition. Let's just
hope that happens before another device comes out that changes how we think
about the mobile Web ... again.
Mobile Markets and Sheer Numbers
Numbers can be deceiving, but sometimes hard to ignore. When it comes to mobile
statistics, some of the data are simply astonishing.
According to Gartner Research, mobile phone sales topped 1.15 billion units in
2007, contributing to a total of 3.3 billion handsets worldwide – or half of the
world’s population. Of course, a fraction of those are suitable for mobile Web
use. However, if iPhone sales are any indication of mobile Web adoption, the
stage is set for a virtual revolution. Over 4 million iPhones were sold within
the first six months of production, 2.3 million of which sold in the last
quarter of 2007 alone. As the Web is truly a global presence, it is important to
look at mobile adoption as a whole. India is the fastest growing mobile market
and has claimed second place next to China as the world’s most mobile nation.
According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), more than 8
million subscribers were added in October 2007, bringing the total to more than
250 million — and that number is expected to double by 2011.
Of course the mobile Web doesn’t exist without proper coverage. Increasingly,
networks are providing coverage at major community hubs (yes, Starbucks
included) and some U.S. cities are still attempting to provide free WiFi access
across the board. Many mobile carriers have started to introduce flat-rate
mobile packages, including unlimited data transfer essential to widespread
mobile Web browsing. The Global System for Mobile communications (GSM) is the
current, and for some the only method of connecting to the mobile Web and has a
reported coverage of around 80 percent. According to the GSM Association, mobile
penetration is expected to reach 90 percent by 2010.
Developing countries present an interesting dynamic. Reaching these populations
presents a challenge for marketers and advertisers, even though they represent
some of the fastest growing markets. While many of these regions may lack the
technology (or resources) available to much of the mobile world, they also
represent one of the most captive audiences. Many developing nations’ residents
don’t have access to a PC, leaving the mobile device as their only way to
connect to the Internet. Such is the case for MyGamma, a social network run by
BuzzCity. Based in high-tech Singapore, they draw most of their 2.5 million
users from developing nations in Asia and Africa.
In the end, the mobile space is seeing unprecedented growth and penetration. The
numbers are enough to catch anyone’s attention and the opportunity is simply too
great for marketers, carriers, manufacturers and developers — and yes, website
professionals – to pass up.
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Who is using the mobile Web and what sites are they browsing? The chart below shows five top genres of mobile-accessed content and the top five mobile search portals in the United States. Data courtesy of M:Metrics, and averaged over a three-month period ending in February 2008. |
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Top
browsed Genres: Accessed Web Search: 14,800,775 Accessed Weather: 14,235,817 Accessed News: 13,581,158 Accessed Sports Information: 12,142,079 Accessed Entertainment News: 10,084,300 |
Search Brand Reach: Google: 9,329,940 Yahoo: 5,267,956 Current Mobile Network: 3,712,454 MSN/Windows Live Search: 1,509,919 AOL Mobile: 844,864 |
The Current Mobile Web is Not the Future
One cannot argue against the pervasion of mobile devices and technology into all
corners of the world. It’s theoretically true that a farmer in rural Bangladesh
is able to access the mobile Web in the same way as a teenager in Tokyo.
However, the mobile Web represents two very different things for its respective
users.
While the teenager might be watching video, snapping photos of 2D bar codes or
downloading a new hit song, the farmer might just as likely be simply checking
the week’s weather, reading email or looking for the day’s closing numbers on
rice futures.
One of the dangers this presents is a mobile digital divide. Those with the
resources to obtain the latest devices and the data packages needed to run them
will see a version of the mobile Web consisting of advanced functionality –
streaming video, social networking, e-commerce functionality, etc. It’s less
likely that a rice farmer will purchase merchandise from Amazon.com or order
theatre tickets from his phone. Therefore, marketers and investment dollars will
funnel to early adopters and high-end consumers, leaving a neglected and archaic
mobile Web to the rest.
Adding to the problem are the devices themselves. The iPhone has shown that the
familiar PC-based browsing experience can translate to a device without the need
for specialized pages and websites. And what we’ve seen is only the beginning.
As devices improve, the need for a separate, mobile Web begins to disintegrate.
That’s significant, as the millions of dollars currently pouring in for mobile
applications and websites will one day no longer be necessary.
While the lucky owners of advanced devices will be accessing a ubiquitous
Internet, those without the latest technology will likely see specialized mobile
pages and services slowly disappear, increasing the divide. Developers will
certainly create applications better suited to developing nations and their
users, but that runs the risk of creating an entirely separate mobile Web and
mobile economy, making trade and commerce difficult between the two mediums. In
short, the current iteration and projected omnipresence of one mobile Web and
its applications are not sustainable.
Mobile Applications
If there’s a current battleground for the mobile Web, the arena is in the
applications. Developers are rolling out new applications as fast as they can
generate ideas. Everything from mobile social networking and GPS-enabled services to music downloading, mobile
games and video streaming are vying for users’ attention.
However, it seems that some of the most widely adopted mobile applications are
the simple ones. Several manufacturers including Blackberry, Nokia and Apple
have the ability to place a Google search box directly on a user’s home screen, negating the need to open
a browser, navigate to Google, then enter a search query. Some of the most
visited sites on the mobile Web are quick hits — like CNN.com for news headlines, ESPN.com for sports scores
or Accuweather.com for weather updates.
Yahoo jumped head-first into the mobile fray, forming several strategic
partnerships with carriers and recently superpages.com, while working hard to
make a strong first impression with the mobile audience. "Just like they were a Web 1.0 leader, now they're a
mobile 1.0 leader," says Canaccord Adams analyst Colin Gillis.
Perhaps one of Yahoo’s most promising applications is voice-enabled search and
commands with OneSearch 2.0. A recent demo at CTIA Las Vegas showed a voice
command of “British Airways 287” returning arrival times, “March Madness” retrieved college
basketball scores and “3600 Las Vegas Boulevard” led to a street map and driving
directions. That’s the kind of usability perfectly fit for a mobile device.
Nokia has already committed to offering the Yahoo service on its Series 60
phones.
The biggest hurdle of mobile apps is the disconnect among devices, carriers and
developers. Some apps work on some devices and not others, while other apps
don’t work at all or have no foreseeable business model. Most applications take some level of tech
literacy to even implement on a mobile phone, disqualifying an enormous segment
of the population.
Google is attempting to resolve the issue through Android and the accompanying
Open Handset Alliance. These efforts hope to stabilize the mobile application
marketplace by setting standards that will allow apps to work on any device and with any carrier.
However, until that day, the mobile application space remains highly fragmented
and limited in reach.
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Love it or hate it, the iPhone has changed the game — both in mobile Web usage and the standard by which all future mobile devices will be measured. |
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E-Commerce and Wary Consumers
Perhaps the greatest challenge to total mobile Web domination is e-commerce.
Moving from an environment which acts as a communication tool and forcing that
same device to become a transactional tool has been challenging to say the
least. As Web media companies such as Yahoo and Google and large e-commerce
vendors pour millions into the mobile Web, consumers remain leery of buying products or services through a mobile device.
Those who have genuinely tried to purchase products through their mobile devices
often become frustrated with the entire process, including page after page of
confirmations and user ID and password entries. When a motivated shopper finds
she has to type in 16-digit credit card numbers, expiration dates and CVV
numbers, she may just walk away from a loaded shopping cart. In many cases, she
might have avoided the aggravation with a five-minute phone call or a drive to a
local retailer using directions provided, ironically, through her mobile device.
Surpassing logistical difficulties, the top barriers to mobile e-commerce
consistently cited by consumers are privacy and security. Wireless Transport
Layer Security (WTLS) actually offers more encryption than traditional
transactions, but it is and will continue to be challenging to convince users of
this fact. In a study released by Gartner in February, polling 2,000 U.S. and
U.K. consumers, U.S. consumers were twice as likely to check for prices on a
mobile device (24 percent) than to actually purchase something (12 percent.)
Numbers were similar in the U.K.: 18 percent check prices and just 11 percent
buy. Those numbers don’t bode well for mobile e-commerce in 2008 or even 2009.
Promotional challenges for businesses persist as well. Coupons have been
presented as one possible solution. Leveraged by Bluetooth proximity services
and even SMS, a business could deliver a coupon to a consumer just as they enter
a certain proximity. For example, the message could be, “bring this message to
Dave’s Deli in the next 30 minutes and receive a free drink with purchase of a
sandwich.” But success could lead to big problems, of course, if consumers find
their mobile devices overloaded with offers and consider mobile coupons an
invasion of privacy. In addition, savvy users might find holes in these
promotional opportunities and begin faking their way to significant,
undocumented discounts.
The best-case scenario is a happy medium where consumers are gently coaxed into
action while businesses effectively promote their services. Of course, there is
a worst-case scenario. As many mobile promotional offers and coupons are
stripped of images and identifiable branding, there are plenty of opportunities
for scams. One widespread mobile e-commerce scam could do major damage to the entire industry.
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Mobile Tip: Navigation Mobile screens are small. When a user clicks on a link, the content should be delivered immediately, at the top of the page. Keep navigation at the bottom of the content, or small navigation links at the top. Don’t force users to scroll down to find the content they are looking for.
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What do the experts think about the mobile Web and its potential?
We asked Laura Marriott, President of the Mobile Marketing Association a few
questions. The Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) is a non-profit association
dedicated to stimulating the growth of mobile marketing and its associated technologies. The
MMA is a global organization with more than 500 members including agencies,
advertisers, manufacturers, retailers, developers and more, representing over 40
countries.
WM: The mobile Web has been predicted to take off for several years, but it
has yet to happen. What is taking so long?
Marriott: The mobile Web is happening - and we are seeing adoption rates climb
faster in the last six months than ever before. Faster data networks, better
handsets and more compelling services have certainly helped. However, I believe
the biggest change and driver for adoption has been the unlimited flat-rate data
plans that have been deployed by most carriers. Consumers are no longer left
wondering about the costs of their data packages and can now spend one amount
for unlimited, anytime access.
WM: Is the mobile Web a real opportunity for small businesses? What can they
do to prepare in 2008?
Marriott: Yes, absolutely. The new consumer is always on, always on the go.
Mobile Web allows the small retailer to contact and engage with the consumer
wherever and whenever they are. Small businesses should, at the very least, establish a very basic
mobile Web presence that includes mobilizing their existing site, or creating a
new mobile presence. Costs are reasonable and providers like Crisp Wireless, Volantis and Quattro Wireless are
offering these services to companies of all sizes.
WM: What are the major hurdles to widespread mobile Web adoption?
Marriott: Perhaps the largest hurdle is consumer education and consumer
awareness of the more advanced data functionality on their device(s). One method
to address this is to provide greater access to more compelling content and services, hence driving more
consumer interactions and interest.
WM: Has your position on the mobile Web changed in the last few years?
Marriott: Yes. The WAP 1.0 experience was very text heavy and fairly boring.
Mobile Web pages were purely functional and addressed a desire to communicate
with simple informational services. Fast forward to today, and we have graphic
rich, highly compelling services that beg consumer interaction and engagement.
Interactive and highly entertaining - these new mobile Web applications are easy
to navigate, easy to understand and help to drive more engagement and longer
usage cycles than in years prior. So yes, I am absolutely a fan today! Personally, I use the mobile Web at least once a day, seven days a week
(up from 1 time per month less than 3 years ago.)


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